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Tuesday, November 21, 2017 7:50 PM PST

Outlook: August probably cooler than normal

By John C. Toman. Posted August 6, 2011, 12:38 PM.



It's been a while since we've had a warmer than normal month in Southern California's inland valleys, and based on the latest outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, that streak is likely to stay intact this August.

The latest outlooks show a 33% chance of below normal temperatures for the month of August, rising to 40% near the coast.

August is statistically the hottest month of the year in the inland valleys, with average high temperatures running slightly hotter than July and September.

The outlook also show an equal chance of precipitation being greater or less than normal. Most August rainfall is monsoon-driven inland, although some can come from tropical storm activity off of Baja California.

August is typically the peak of the monsoon season, a fact especially reflected in Hemet's statistics. Hemet's location close to the San Jacinto mountains gives it a higher chance of rainfall from thunderstorms that sometimes drift west.

Longer term, some of NOAA's models are predicting a return of La Nina this fall. This past La Nina season (2010-2011) was the wettest on record.

Here's what's normal for the month of August, by community:

Location Precip. High
De Luz 0.08"  86°F 
Fallbrook 0.03"  85°F 
Hemet 0.25"  96°F 
Lake Elsinore 0.02"  99°F 
Menifee 0.01"  97°F 
Murrieta 0.00"  91°F 
Riverside 0.00"  93°F 
Temecula 0.06"  91°F 

Note: normals are used for communities with five or more years of data.

Temperature Outlook August 2011

Temperature outlook for August (Climate Prediction Center)

Precipitation Outlook June 2011

Precipitation outlook for August (Climate Prediction Center)

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